DTN Early Word Opening Livestock 08/29 05:58
Meat Futures Set to Open Week With Mixed Price Action
Look for the cattle complex to open moderately lower Monday, pressured by
follow-through selling and bearish cash psychology. On the other hand, expect
lean hog issues to begin moderately higher, supported by residual buying
interest and the premium status of the cash index.
By John Harrington
DTN Livestock Analyst
Cattle: Steady-$2 LR Futures: 25-50 LR Live Equiv $135.40 - .35 *
Hogs: Steady-$1 LR Futures: 25-50 HR Lean Equiv $ 81.81 - .17 **
* based on formula estimating live cattle equivalent of gross packer revenue
** based on formula estimating lean hog equivalent of gross packer revenue
Spot August live cattle futures expire in just a few days, but even at this
date, show little interest in converging with the feedlot cash trade (at least
not if it means moving toward the most recent country sales). Indeed, as the
week starts, the nearby board continues to direct cash expectations lower.
While futures could take a big swing one way or the other Monday, the cash
arena will no doubt be typically quiet as packers and feedlot managers focus
exclusively on the distribution of new showlists. We expect the pre-holiday
offering to be about steady with last week. Our guess is that asking prices
will start out around $118 in the South and $186 to $188 in the North. Live and
feeder futures are likely to open moderately lower, pressured by follow-through
selling and defensive cash prospects.
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