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USDA Hogs & Pigs Report                06/26 14:10

By John A. Harrington
DTN Livestock Analyst

             June 1 Hogs & Pigs Report by John A. Harrington

                          USDA Actual   Average Guess   Guess Range

All Hogs June 1             109.0%          108.0%     107.5-109.0%
Kept for Breeding           101.0%          102.0%     101.5-102.5%
Kept for Marketing          109.0%          108.5%     107.5-111.0%
WEIGHT BREAKDOWN
180# Plus                   113.0%          110.0%     108.0-112.0%
120-179#                    111.0%          110.0%     108.0-111.5%
50-119#                     109.0%          109.0%     106.0-110.0%
Under 50#                   107.0%          108.0%     106.0-111.5%
FARROWINGS/INTENTIONS*
Mar-May                     101.0%          102.0%     102.0-102.5%
Jun-Aug*                     97.0%           99.5%      97.0-101.5%
Sep-Nov*                     96.0%          101.0%      97.5-103.0%
Spring Pig Crop             108.0%          108.0%     106.0-109.0%
Mar-May Pigs per Litter     106.0%          106.0%     105.0-108.0%

The June 1 inventory just released appears to be bearish in terms of 
nearby market numbers with the heaviest weight categories exceeding 
average trade guesses by a good deal. On the other hand, this new set of 
numbers seems to be friendlier than expected relative to deferreds. 
Specifically, the June 1 breeding herd is somewhat smaller than 
anticipated. Furthermore, farrowing intentions fall short of most trade 
guesses. Look for bear spreading to be a popular reaction when trade 
resumes on Monday. 
All inventory and pig crop estimates for June 2014 through March 2015 were 
revised using final pig crop, official slaughter and updated trade foreign 
trade data. The net revision made to the December 2014 all hogs and pigs 
inventory was 2.5%. A revision of 4.3% was made to the Sep-Nov 2014 pig 
crop. 


For more from John, visit http://www.feelofthemarket.com/
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