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DTN Midday Livestock Comments          09/15 11:56

   Mixed Prices Hold Across Livestock Complex  

   Light trade has been seen through the morning Monday. This has kept cattle 
prices bouncing higher and lower repeatedly over the last few hours, which is 
creating some uncertainty about follow through activity as the end of the 
trading session.  Traders are looking for additional late-day direction before 
moving in from the sidelines. 

By Rick Kment
DTN Analyst


   Mixed trade continues to be seen through livestock futures Monday morning 
with trade volumes remaining light. This is keeping prices in a tight to 
moderate range with the focus not only on the direction of outside markets, but 
also the ability to sustain current or stronger demand for beef and pork 
through the rest of the fall. Corn futures are higher at midday. December corn 
futures are 2 cents per bushel higher. Stock markets are mixed in light trade. 
The Dow Jones is 13 points higher while Nasdaq is down 48 points.


   Live cattle trade has bounced higher and lower through the morning as light 
trade is seen Monday and the few players stepping in and out of the market 
continue to have some significant control of price direction. Nearby futures 
are holding onto narrow gains at midday, but moderate pressure in deferred 
contracts continues to limit the ability to draw additional buyer support back 
into the complex. Cash cattle remains inactive and likely to remain that way 
until midweek or later. Show lists are mixed with available number generally 
smaller in the South, and steady to slightly higher in the North. Asking prices 
are still hard to pinpoint, but around $164 in the South and $253 to $255 in 
the North. Bids are undeveloped, and may not start to be seen until Tuesday or 
Wednesday. Beef cut-outs at midday are mixed, $0.72 per cwt higher (select) and 
down $0.06 per cwt (choice) with moderate movement of 91 total loads reported 
(45 loads of choice cuts, 18 loads of select cuts, 15 loads of trimmings, 14 
loads of ground beef).


   Trade remains extremely sluggish through the morning Monday with nearby 
contracts hovering between 10 cents lower and 20 cents higher. Traders are 
caught between the potential for tight demand to keep buyers active, and 
growing questions as to just how strong beef demand will remain through most of 
the fall. This is likely to keep prices mixed in a narrow to moderate range 
through the rest of the trading session.   


   Trade support is firming in nearby lean hog contracts despite pressure in 
morning reports concerning both cash values and pork cutouts. The expectation 
that traders have oversold the complex last week, is helping to draw light 
support through nearby contracts, although traders in deferred summer 2015 
contracts are much less convinced that additional support can be maintained. 
October futures continue to lead the complex higher with an 88 cent per cwt 
rally at midday. Cash prices are lower on the National Direct morning cash hog 
report. The weighted average price fell $3.69 per cwt to $97.11 per cwt with 
the range from $90.00 to $102.25 per cwt on 2,328 head reported sold. Cash 
prices are unreported due to confidentiality on the Iowa Minnesota Direct 
morning cash hog report. The National Pork Plant Report is reported 138 loads 
selling as prices gaining $3.10 per cwt. Lean hog index for 9/11 is at $101.34 
up 1.14, with a projected two-day index of $102.26 up 0.92.

   Rick Kment can be reached at rick.kment@dtn.com 


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